Finale

Sequel sucks.

Not that I have fewer opinions on what's happening around, but the cost - both social and opportunistic ones - is too high to get my view expressed. For some quick and sensational comments (as well as good books that I read), I shall put them up on Facebook.

So, this is the end of my blog. As F.A. Hayek said in The Road to Serfdom:

If we are to build a better world we must have the courage to make a new start - even if that means some reculer pour mieux sauter.

Happy new year.

Player

Recently read: Ellery Queen 《The Player on the Other Side》（中譯本）

Name

Recently watched: 新海誠《你的名字》

Excellent plot and brilliantly excecuted - although if I were Makoto Shinkai, I would have make Miki Okudera turns out to be Mitsuha Miyamizu five years later.

Considerations

Although Abraham Wald did bring up an important and influential point, I must say I am not entirely satisfied the computation.

A few issues here. To begin with, the degree of protection is probably not directly proportional to the thickness of the armor - at some point there should be a plateau of the relation curve.

Second, it was assumed that the bullets were fired randomly and evenly, so that the density of bullet holes on each part of a surviving plain was inversely proportional to the vulnerability of that part. For obviously reasons we know that's not correct. To go one step further, with the data and knowledge of the survey, pilots of the adversary air force would try to focus more often on the vulnerable parts, resulting in a negative feedback.

Moreover, there are parts that are intrinsically protected and therefore have a lower chance of being hit by bullets. For example, the medial surface of the engine could not be easily hit. If you want an extreme example, the wheels and tire could hardly be hit because they are hidden inside the plane while flying. Alas, you won't put armor on the tire, will you?

Missing

My recent leisure reading is about the life and time of Abraham Wald, who was famous for, amongst his other contributions to mathematics and decision theory, the story of the missing bullet holes.

To put it simply, Wald was a mathematician born in the then Austria-Hungary Empire and moved to the States when Nazi took over his country (around the same time with Captain Georg von Trapp of The Sound of Music). He had most of his academic career at the Columbia University.

During World War II, Wald was involved in a project to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. In short, the US Navy conducted a study of the damage done to aircraft that had returned from missions. The original idea was to add armor to the areas that showed the most damage. In contrast, Wald argued that reinforcement should be made in the areas where the returning aircraft had least bullet holes, since those were the areas that, if hit, would cause the plane to be lost.

Simple, eh? The actual calculation is a lot more complicated. For fans of pure mathematics, you may like to go through Wald's original report, which is a 90-page text available at http://www4.ncsu.edu/~swu6/documents/A_Reprint_Plane_Vulnerability.pdf

Link

I end up solving my problem accidentally.

And it is easy. I create a conventional short-cut for the file that I want easy access, and then copy that short-cut to the Evernote page - in which it appears as an ordinary file with "lnk" as the extension. When it is double-clicked, the original file in the hard disk is opened by the usual program. (I try it on all Microsoft Office applications as well as SPSS files.)

The point is, if the original file is in Google Drive, it would then be synchronized automatically after saving. You can access the same file from different Evernote pages because you just put hyperlinks rather than the original file in the page. Moreover, if you are the rare species who works on two computers with the same Google Drive, the link would still work in both computers - as long as the filing structure (i.e. the path name) of the target file remains the same.

And it works equally well if the link is made to a foler rather than a single file.

Problem

Although there are two official ways to put a file in the page of Evernote, each has its own problem.

First, putting a file directly into the note page means that it is detached from the original hard drive folder that keeps many of the related documents. Although it is theoretically possible to put several files into the same page of notes and make it function as a folder, there is a size limit of the file and you lose the hierarchy of a folder system. Moving attachment files across note pages is also cumbersome.

(By the way, there is an "Import Folder" function of Evernote, which seems to be an attempt to take over the conventional folder function. It is absolutely hopeless.)

How about linking up with the Google Drive?

Not much better an option really. It is ridiculously difficulty to find the file you want to link up because the dialogue box does not follow the tree-like filing system. You need to define the program for opening Microsoft Office files need to be opened. And, above all, it doesn't work when you are off-line.

Evernote

Frequent visitor of this blog would know I use Evernote for information management. (For example, see http://ccszeto.blogspot.hk/2011/01/evernote.html)

Over the years, the program improves drastically, and I use it now for almost every aspect of my life. It is my second brain to keep useful information, a filing cabinet to hold meeting notes, a program to keep track on all projects, a note pad to write down things to do and wild ideas, and what not.

Nonetheless, Evernote is not designed for file management. I still keep most of the files in Google Drive - photo, database, and many other documents - and there comes the problem. In short, it is not uncommon for me to shift directly from a note page (for example, one with some cursory notes that I made during a meeting) to an actual file. How could I do it?

There are two official ways: Move the file into the notes as an attachment, or, if the file is kept in Google Drive, attach the hyperlink of the file to the notes.

However, neither is entirely satisfactory.

Let me explain tomorrow.

Stethoscope

Christmas present I bought for myself - this is the fourth stethoscope in my professional life.

Merry Christmas.

MBA

Recently read: Steven Silbiger 《The 10-Day MBA》

Somehow I find it more difficult to understand than when I first read it 15 years ago.

Compete

Recently read: Hiroshi Mikitani and Ryoichi Mikitani 《The Power to Compete》

The best way that a son could pay tribute to his father.

Act

(Conversation overheard during a social dinner.)

A: Let me give you my name card.

B (looking at the card): Alas, you are the director of a troupe!

A (blushing slightly): Yes...

B: Do you go up to the stage and act ?

A: No need. I have ample opportunities - I act in my daily life.

結果

對於這次選舉的結果，許多老一輩的醫生都不無感歎。

事實上，在許多界别都可以看到，諷刺的現象是：年輕的一輩希望守衛香港的「核心價值」。然而，這個有點虛無飄渺的所謂「核心價值」，正是由那些他們要打倒的較年長的一輩所創立。

反過來看，較年長的一輩自從建立了香港的「核心價值」後，已晋身為有既得利益的建制階層。他們對年輕人的激進舉動感到大惑不解，只會說世界變了，卻不知道變的是自己。當年的初衷已變成後人的理想，而自己竟然是他們追求理想的絆腳石。

Know

Shortly after the result of the CE Election Committee was out, I had the opportunity to dine with a group of local doctors - from a few senior members of the College to some junior trainees.

As expected, the senior ones led the discussion. PL, a senior consultant who is also the most verbose one, began, "I am really surprised with the result. Being in the field for so long, and knowing so many people, I could only recognize five of the 30 doctors who win the election!"

We were silent for a moment. PL went on, "Szeto, how many of them do you know?"

"Hm... half of them, I suppose."

"How about you, JN?" He turned to a new fellow over the other side of the table.

"Two-third, I think."

"In other words, there is an inverse correlation between the age of a doctor and the degree of support to the successful candidates..." I said to myself.

Evernote

Recently read: Escor Huang《Evernote 100個做筆記的好方法》

May not be comprehensive, but absolutely practical.

功課

（真實對白）

老竇（對緊手册）：呢樣功課係乜？

阿女：唔……英文作句改正。

老竇（睇咗份嘢一輪）：改啲乜？

阿女：呢一句我唔記得完咗寫fullstop。

老竇：咁點改？

阿女（指住篇習作）：喺呢度加番一點。

老竇：吓！呢樣功課就係點一點！？

Books

On a recent occasion, I visited the office of my wife Vivian. To my surprise, she keeps a good collection of books that I read on her shelf.

Here is an incomplete list:

• 愛德華•霍克《鬼使神偷》
• 喬斯坦·賈德《蘇菲的世界》
• 愛笛絲．赫米爾敦《希臘羅馬神話故事》
• 米蘭·昆德拉《玩笑》
• 黃仁宇《萬曆十五年》
• 阿嘉莎‧克莉絲蒂《十三人的晚宴》
• 李伯元《官場現形記》
• Wayne A. Wickelgren《How to solve mathematical problems》
• Boris Kordemsky 《The Moscow Puzzles: 359 Mathematical Recreations》
• Peter Klein《Getting started in security analysis》

Circumstance

Following my argument yesterday, there is an important consideration that may skip your eyes.

In short, when should we aim to make sure our favorite candidate wins, and when should we change the objective and try to get rid of the ones we are against?

It is, in fact, simple. In a democratic environment and when everyone could have their own opinion, we should go for the former. In that circumstances, we should try to make our special voice heard.

On the other hand, when we are struggling under the mercy of tyranny and are in the minority, we should do the opposite. In this case, it is logical to unite everyone to fight against Lord Voldemort.

NB. I shall do away with the steps of logical deduction that bring us to this conclusion. Nonetheless, if you could not see how it comes along, you could see nothing.

Scenario

Following my discussion on the strategy of voting in recent days, is there any scenario that we really would want to vote for one but not all two candidates?

Yes, there is one.

Consider this: Suppose there is one candidate that you support, another you are neutral to, and the other 8 you are strongly against; one of the 8 is way ahead and would certainly win, the neutral one is in the second place with a marginal lead over your favorite candidate, who is third in the list In that case, voting only for the candidate you support would push him to the second and win.

You may argue: Although this scenario is uncommon, it is the only one that your vote makes a difference. I consider that a subjective judgment: Do we want the one whom we support to win, or those we are against lose?

Difference

You may ask: What is the difference between voting for candidates after they declared their choice of CE and having a group of representatives who do a survey and choose the CE according to the result?

Substantial.

You may realize the latter system is that used by the United States for presidential election. Although appears to be fair, it is in fact a winner-takes-all policy, and opinion of the important minority is neglected. In other words, a marginal dominance becomes a complete victory in a sector (or, a state in USA). It is therefore possible to have a candidate winning an election but would have lost if it is a general election: They win by the skin of their teeth in many sectors and lose terribly in a few sectors.

Donald Trump is the most recent example.

Comment

I must say I am so impressed by the reply that I lose my nerve.

To begin with, there is little reason for members of the Election Committee to explain to their voters the policy of every candidate running for the Chief Executive - who should explain his plan to the constituency directly. With the Election Committee as the intermediate, all messages become second-hand and are subjected to bias and distortion.

But, above all, if they vote according to the survey, there is little point to choose a bright or capable candidate, because their only task is to conduct the survey. In this case, the only criteria of choosing Election Committee members is integrity - that is, the risk of them to cast a vote against the result of survey.

I shall not elaborate further.

Reply

When asked whom he would vote for in the coming Chief Executive election, a candidate who runs for the Election Committee makes a remarkable reply:

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愚見以為選委有責任向選民分析每一位特首候選人如何認識香港面對的眾多問題，又有何應對方略。

因此，廣博的視野(包掊香港在世界發展的角色、全球走向的大勢以至歷史觀)、敏銳的洞察力、多方面的認識(包括政治、經濟、民生和本科專業發展)和強大的邏輯分析能力都是選委必須具備的條件。偏頗和歧見、自我中心和排他思維都妨礙上述條件的發揮。

在未曾深入分析了解每位特首候選人之前就先作比較甚至選擇，不是負責任的做法。我不認為口號式地「堅拒投某某的票」，香港便會好了。

上述的分析和闡述尤為重要，須於特首選舉民調前開展。

最後，我承諾依從整個業界的民調結果投票。

**************************

I shall save my comments for tomorrow.

Strategy

Scenario #5 (following the logic of #2): If we support 1 candidate, are neutral to 2 others, and are strongly against the remaining 7, we should vote for the one that we support and, amongst the two whom we are neutral to, the one who has a higher chance to win. Again, the objective is to minimize the chance of those we are against.

Is there any scenario that we should cast only one vote? Let's consider this:

Scenario #6: We support 1 candidate and are strongly against the remaining 9.

Yes, in theory, we should only vote for the one whom we support and leave the other vote blank.

However, in real life situation, it is almost always possible to, amongst the 9 whom we dislike, find one that is least repugnant. Even if there is none, there may well be other social reasons that you would like to vote for one of the abominable nine - for example, one of them is your classmate or old friend. In this case, your spare vote serves a social rather than political function.

Vote

(...cont'd)

Scenario #3: If we support 1 candidate, are neutral to another, and are strongly against the other 8, we should vote for the one that we support as well as the one whom we are neutral to - so as to minimize the chance of those we are against.

Scenario #4 (following the logic of #3): If we do not support any candidate, are neutral to two, and are strongly against the other 8, we should vote for the two whom we are neutral to. Again, we want to minimize the chance of those we are against.

The motto is: Even though we have no particular one in mind to support, we should always vote.

More scenarios to come tomorrow.

Election

While we are considering who to vote for in the coming Chief Executive Election Committee Subsector Election, a classmate of mine said, "I could not find all 30 good candidates to vote for. As a result, I shall put up fewer votes so as to concentrate my support."

I must say I find this plan, to say the least, ingenuous.

Let's go through the considerations step by step:

***************************
Let's consider a simple situation: There are 10 candidates running for 2 posts, and we can cast 2 votes.

Scenario #1: If we support 2 candidates and are strongly against the other 8, we should certainly vote for the 2 that we support.

Scenario #2: If we support 3 candidates, we should vote 2 of them who have the highest chance of winning.

(To be continued.)

茶錢

（餐桌閑話。）

太座：你知道，我醫院的門診部每年都有聖誕聯歡，籌辦的護士和文職人員都會找高級醫生贊助。今年，她們更嘗試打一些受訓中的醫生主意。老郭知道後很不高興，黑着臉對她們說：「唔好攪啲細嘅！」他對年輕醫生倒真不錯。

（按：老郭是她們的部門主管。）

區區：我倒不這樣想。

太座：為甚麼？

區區：贊助活動是和她們打好關係的好辦法。你想想，護士等不會為難有資歷的醫生，因為她們心裡明白，難保自己或家人對這醫生有事相求。但是，對年輕、受訓中的醫生來說，可以和護士等打通關係的便不外飲食資助。長遠而言，對他們的發展是大有好處。

Resource

"Japan doesn't have abundant natural resources. Our people are everything... it is more important for us to invest in people," said Ryoichi Mikitani

I believe Hong Kong is no different.

筆記術

Recently read: 奧野宣之《活用一輩子的讀書筆記術》。

It may not be the best book of the topic. Nonetheless, it convinces me that we need to take notes along with our reading.

Again

Shortly after returned from Chicago, I took part in the licensing examination arranged by the Medical Council.

It was a tiring two-day exercise. In the last session, I had the privilege of pairing up with our external examiner, who has the habit of saying a very piece of epilogue to each candidate when the examination is finished: Thank you. See you again.

I kept a polite smile - because I fully understand a candidate would need to see their examiner again only if they fail.

************************
Towards the end of our session, we met a particularly outstanding candidate. (In this case, outstanding means if the candidate were a schoolchild and we teachers, we would certainly ask him to get out of the classroom and stand there for the rest of the day.)

While the candidate was marching out of the examination hall with the standard epilogue, I turned and tole my new friend, "For god sake, I having nothing to thank him, and I certainly do not want to see him again..."

負責

我的一位同學最近說:

「某某人講大話、誠信破產、蓄意破壞香港的法治，莫視民主、自由等核心價值和國際標準，因此萬萬不能選他，萬萬不能讓他連任！」 這話容易說，可以贏得掌聲、可以保證選票，但這些說話不外乎口號 -- 空洞沒有內容的口號。我不愛喊口號。

別再空喊口了！香港需要一個有遠見、有承擔、不怕開罪權貴和既得利益集團的領袖。我們的選民都有敏銳的眼光、獨立的思考、邏輯的思維，可以踢開口號，為香港、為業界選擇出最優秀的領袖。

*********************************

說的不錯。所以當有人用了幾年的時間，非但不能把問題改善，反而令社會撕裂、民怨載道，便是時候改變了。

按：有人會說，社會上的種種問題，有許多宏觀因素，並非某人一己的過錯。唔，這樣說的話，希特拉夷平捷克，並非張伯倫之過；而那個特別漫長的五月，也跟任何一位總理無關。

競選

致參加特首選舉委員會競選的各位：

請不要繕述你們的施政理念、宏圖遠景；也不用解釋你將用甚麼準則去決定投票給哪一個特首候選人。你只要老實告訴我你將投票給誰便成。我清楚知道我支持甚麼人做特首。你們只是代表我投票，請不要騎劫我的意見。

一名普通市民