Finale

Sequel sucks.

Not that I have fewer opinions on what's happening around, but the cost - both social and opportunistic ones - is too high to get my view expressed. For some quick and sensational comments (as well as good books that I read), I shall put them up on Facebook.

So, this is the end of my blog. As F.A. Hayek said in The Road to Serfdom:

If we are to build a better world we must have the courage to make a new start - even if that means some reculer pour mieux sauter.

Happy new year.

Player

Recently read: Ellery Queen 《The Player on the Other Side》（中譯本）

Name

Recently watched: 新海誠《你的名字》

Excellent plot and brilliantly excecuted - although if I were Makoto Shinkai, I would have make Miki Okudera turns out to be Mitsuha Miyamizu five years later.

Considerations

Although Abraham Wald did bring up an important and influential point, I must say I am not entirely satisfied the computation.

A few issues here. To begin with, the degree of protection is probably not directly proportional to the thickness of the armor - at some point there should be a plateau of the relation curve.

Second, it was assumed that the bullets were fired randomly and evenly, so that the density of bullet holes on each part of a surviving plain was inversely proportional to the vulnerability of that part. For obviously reasons we know that's not correct. To go one step further, with the data and knowledge of the survey, pilots of the adversary air force would try to focus more often on the vulnerable parts, resulting in a negative feedback.

Moreover, there are parts that are intrinsically protected and therefore have a lower chance of being hit by bullets. For example, the medial surface of the engine could not be easily hit. If you want an extreme example, the wheels and tire could hardly be hit because they are hidden inside the plane while flying. Alas, you won't put armor on the tire, will you?

Missing

My recent leisure reading is about the life and time of Abraham Wald, who was famous for, amongst his other contributions to mathematics and decision theory, the story of the missing bullet holes.

To put it simply, Wald was a mathematician born in the then Austria-Hungary Empire and moved to the States when Nazi took over his country (around the same time with Captain Georg von Trapp of The Sound of Music). He had most of his academic career at the Columbia University.

During World War II, Wald was involved in a project to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. In short, the US Navy conducted a study of the damage done to aircraft that had returned from missions. The original idea was to add armor to the areas that showed the most damage. In contrast, Wald argued that reinforcement should be made in the areas where the returning aircraft had least bullet holes, since those were the areas that, if hit, would cause the plane to be lost.

Simple, eh? The actual calculation is a lot more complicated. For fans of pure mathematics, you may like to go through Wald's original report, which is a 90-page text available at http://www4.ncsu.edu/~swu6/documents/A_Reprint_Plane_Vulnerability.pdf

Link

I end up solving my problem accidentally.

And it is easy. I create a conventional short-cut for the file that I want easy access, and then copy that short-cut to the Evernote page - in which it appears as an ordinary file with "lnk" as the extension. When it is double-clicked, the original file in the hard disk is opened by the usual program. (I try it on all Microsoft Office applications as well as SPSS files.)

The point is, if the original file is in Google Drive, it would then be synchronized automatically after saving. You can access the same file from different Evernote pages because you just put hyperlinks rather than the original file in the page. Moreover, if you are the rare species who works on two computers with the same Google Drive, the link would still work in both computers - as long as the filing structure (i.e. the path name) of the target file remains the same.

And it works equally well if the link is made to a foler rather than a single file.

Problem

Although there are two official ways to put a file in the page of Evernote, each has its own problem.

First, putting a file directly into the note page means that it is detached from the original hard drive folder that keeps many of the related documents. Although it is theoretically possible to put several files into the same page of notes and make it function as a folder, there is a size limit of the file and you lose the hierarchy of a folder system. Moving attachment files across note pages is also cumbersome.

(By the way, there is an "Import Folder" function of Evernote, which seems to be an attempt to take over the conventional folder function. It is absolutely hopeless.)

How about linking up with the Google Drive?

Not much better an option really. It is ridiculously difficulty to find the file you want to link up because the dialogue box does not follow the tree-like filing system. You need to define the program for opening Microsoft Office files need to be opened. And, above all, it doesn't work when you are off-line.

Evernote

Frequent visitor of this blog would know I use Evernote for information management. (For example, see http://ccszeto.blogspot.hk/2011/01/evernote.html)

Over the years, the program improves drastically, and I use it now for almost every aspect of my life. It is my second brain to keep useful information, a filing cabinet to hold meeting notes, a program to keep track on all projects, a note pad to write down things to do and wild ideas, and what not.

Nonetheless, Evernote is not designed for file management. I still keep most of the files in Google Drive - photo, database, and many other documents - and there comes the problem. In short, it is not uncommon for me to shift directly from a note page (for example, one with some cursory notes that I made during a meeting) to an actual file. How could I do it?

There are two official ways: Move the file into the notes as an attachment, or, if the file is kept in Google Drive, attach the hyperlink of the file to the notes.

However, neither is entirely satisfactory.

Let me explain tomorrow.

Stethoscope

Christmas present I bought for myself - this is the fourth stethoscope in my professional life.

Merry Christmas.

MBA

Recently read: Steven Silbiger 《The 10-Day MBA》

Somehow I find it more difficult to understand than when I first read it 15 years ago.

Compete

Recently read: Hiroshi Mikitani and Ryoichi Mikitani 《The Power to Compete》

The best way that a son could pay tribute to his father.

Act

(Conversation overheard during a social dinner.)

A: Let me give you my name card.

B (looking at the card): Alas, you are the director of a troupe!

A (blushing slightly): Yes...

B: Do you go up to the stage and act ?

A: No need. I have ample opportunities - I act in my daily life.

結果

對於這次選舉的結果，許多老一輩的醫生都不無感歎。

事實上，在許多界别都可以看到，諷刺的現象是：年輕的一輩希望守衛香港的「核心價值」。然而，這個有點虛無飄渺的所謂「核心價值」，正是由那些他們要打倒的較年長的一輩所創立。

反過來看，較年長的一輩自從建立了香港的「核心價值」後，已晋身為有既得利益的建制階層。他們對年輕人的激進舉動感到大惑不解，只會說世界變了，卻不知道變的是自己。當年的初衷已變成後人的理想，而自己竟然是他們追求理想的絆腳石。

Know

Shortly after the result of the CE Election Committee was out, I had the opportunity to dine with a group of local doctors - from a few senior members of the College to some junior trainees.

As expected, the senior ones led the discussion. PL, a senior consultant who is also the most verbose one, began, "I am really surprised with the result. Being in the field for so long, and knowing so many people, I could only recognize five of the 30 doctors who win the election!"

We were silent for a moment. PL went on, "Szeto, how many of them do you know?"

"Hm... half of them, I suppose."

"How about you, JN?" He turned to a new fellow over the other side of the table.

"Two-third, I think."

"In other words, there is an inverse correlation between the age of a doctor and the degree of support to the successful candidates..." I said to myself.

Evernote

Recently read: Escor Huang《Evernote 100個做筆記的好方法》

May not be comprehensive, but absolutely practical.

功課

（真實對白）

老竇（對緊手册）：呢樣功課係乜？

阿女：唔……英文作句改正。

老竇（睇咗份嘢一輪）：改啲乜？

阿女：呢一句我唔記得完咗寫fullstop。

老竇：咁點改？

阿女（指住篇習作）：喺呢度加番一點。

老竇：吓！呢樣功課就係點一點！？

Books

On a recent occasion, I visited the office of my wife Vivian. To my surprise, she keeps a good collection of books that I read on her shelf.

Here is an incomplete list:

• 愛德華•霍克《鬼使神偷》
• 喬斯坦·賈德《蘇菲的世界》
• 愛笛絲．赫米爾敦《希臘羅馬神話故事》
• 米蘭·昆德拉《玩笑》
• 黃仁宇《萬曆十五年》
• 阿嘉莎‧克莉絲蒂《十三人的晚宴》
• 李伯元《官場現形記》
• Wayne A. Wickelgren《How to solve mathematical problems》
• Boris Kordemsky 《The Moscow Puzzles: 359 Mathematical Recreations》
• Peter Klein《Getting started in security analysis》

Circumstance

Following my argument yesterday, there is an important consideration that may skip your eyes.

In short, when should we aim to make sure our favorite candidate wins, and when should we change the objective and try to get rid of the ones we are against?

It is, in fact, simple. In a democratic environment and when everyone could have their own opinion, we should go for the former. In that circumstances, we should try to make our special voice heard.

On the other hand, when we are struggling under the mercy of tyranny and are in the minority, we should do the opposite. In this case, it is logical to unite everyone to fight against Lord Voldemort.

NB. I shall do away with the steps of logical deduction that bring us to this conclusion. Nonetheless, if you could not see how it comes along, you could see nothing.

Scenario

Following my discussion on the strategy of voting in recent days, is there any scenario that we really would want to vote for one but not all two candidates?

Yes, there is one.

Consider this: Suppose there is one candidate that you support, another you are neutral to, and the other 8 you are strongly against; one of the 8 is way ahead and would certainly win, the neutral one is in the second place with a marginal lead over your favorite candidate, who is third in the list In that case, voting only for the candidate you support would push him to the second and win.

You may argue: Although this scenario is uncommon, it is the only one that your vote makes a difference. I consider that a subjective judgment: Do we want the one whom we support to win, or those we are against lose?

Difference

You may ask: What is the difference between voting for candidates after they declared their choice of CE and having a group of representatives who do a survey and choose the CE according to the result?

Substantial.

You may realize the latter system is that used by the United States for presidential election. Although appears to be fair, it is in fact a winner-takes-all policy, and opinion of the important minority is neglected. In other words, a marginal dominance becomes a complete victory in a sector (or, a state in USA). It is therefore possible to have a candidate winning an election but would have lost if it is a general election: They win by the skin of their teeth in many sectors and lose terribly in a few sectors.

Donald Trump is the most recent example.