Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Prediction

One remarkable story about Charles Darwin I learn elsewhere recently is his prediction of the existence of some gigantic moth:

"In madagascar there must be moths with the proboscis capable of extension to a length of between ten and eleven inches ... The pollinia would not be withdrawn until some huge moth, with a wonderfully long proboscis, tried to drain the last drop."

Yes, that's a wonderful theory and logical prediction. Nonetheless, when the author of On the Origin of Species died in 1882 (still believing in the existence of this extraordinary moth), no trace of it had never been found ...

... not until forty years after its original prediction.

It was officially named Xanthophan morgani praedicta - in honor of the prediction by the man we shared the legacy today.

PS. The masterpiece of Charles Darwin took (10 months to write but) 26 years of data collection; his prediction took 40 years to be proved. Both are impossible happenings nowadays - even if he were awarded of some research grant, what could he put up in the progress report every year ?

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