Vivian and I brought Euterpe to visit the Hong Kong Disney on her birthday.
Contrary to her usual self, my wife had an exceptionally careful planning of the trip, and it turned out very enjoyable to all of us. Euterpe is a big fan of Goofy and Pluto (not our chairman, don't be silly), and her face just brightened up when she saw her idols in flesh and blood - not to say to have a chance and take some photos with them.
True, the place is rather small when compared to the other local theme park, but it is enough for spending a few hours.
And, looking at the souvenir shops, I begin to realize why many people think Walt Disney is such a good investment.
PS. In the evening, we had a small family gathering in a traditional Canton restaurant at Tai Wai. The menu was a self selected one: 椒鹽蝦, 炸乳鴿, 鶏腳螺頭湯, 香酥鴨, 枝竹炆杉班, 蝦醬蒸五花腩, 煎釀豆腐, 海鮮雜菜煲; (complimentary) 木瓜果盤. No, there was no abalone or shark fin. But we were all exceedingly happy with the tasty food as well as the good time together.
Who says that we need at least HK$400 per head for an acceptable Chinese menu, or an exquisite hotel ballroom for celebration ?
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Friday, March 13, 2009
Present
It was Euterpe's birthday yesterday. Following the advise of Warren, the present I bought for my daughter this year was one-lot of Construction Bank of China.
Don't be silly. It is not the kind of education fund that I save for my daughter. I always consider that kind of financial planning an excessive micro-management. Why on earth do we set up one fund for children's education, another for our medical need, yet another for retirement ... Shouldn't we just put all savings together and get some benefit of the scale ?
But I do buy Euterpe some stocks - not for the money per se, but for setting her an example of serious investment and planning for the future. It is a brutal fact, but a fact nonetheless, that we should mind our expenditure and prepare for bad days.
And having some stock of your own is an excellent way to raise your interest in what's happening on earth. (I mean the financial tsunami or local employment status, rather than why that pop-idol took some explicit pictures.) Although human beings are political animals, human activities are largely economic activities.
PS. You may wonder why I choose #939 amongst all other companies with an equally good quality. It's just a random pick - the names sounds suitable for a birthday present.
Don't be silly. It is not the kind of education fund that I save for my daughter. I always consider that kind of financial planning an excessive micro-management. Why on earth do we set up one fund for children's education, another for our medical need, yet another for retirement ... Shouldn't we just put all savings together and get some benefit of the scale ?
But I do buy Euterpe some stocks - not for the money per se, but for setting her an example of serious investment and planning for the future. It is a brutal fact, but a fact nonetheless, that we should mind our expenditure and prepare for bad days.
And having some stock of your own is an excellent way to raise your interest in what's happening on earth. (I mean the financial tsunami or local employment status, rather than why that pop-idol took some explicit pictures.) Although human beings are political animals, human activities are largely economic activities.
PS. You may wonder why I choose #939 amongst all other companies with an equally good quality. It's just a random pick - the names sounds suitable for a birthday present.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Brand
Once I think of CIC, I come to realize that China remains the hope of the world economy.
(Yes, I'm a bit thick, if not only stubborn.)
The usual suggestion on how our country could get out of the financial tsunami is to boost up the internal demand - so that the living standard of Chinese people could continue to improve, and our economy could be less dependent on export. (Unfortunately, the same suggestion on internal demand is often put up for Hong Kong - without recognizing the difference in the scale of economy. Alas, parrots are everywhere.)
On the first glance, it seems very plausible. Take the States as an example: it could produce almost everything for her people; if the daily need of everyone increases, the whole of her economy would prosper. Although the Chinese land may be less fertile, it seems sufficient to feed 1200-million population. Moreover, a substantial proportion of Chinese people have much in their living standard to be improved. If the original plan of Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) does work out, the affluent people in coastal cities would create demand, and therefore employment opportunities, for the in-land residents - so that the latter could improve their own living.
That sounds great - the only flaw in this link is those rich Chinese people do not impose a higher need of their local products. Be it milk, food, cosmetics, automobile, or any other consumable that you could think of, products from some foreign country are always preferred. They are safe and you would less likely be poisoned by melamine, mercury, Sudan red, or some other funny chemicals that no one knows how to pronounce.
And therefore an increase in internal demand could only be translated to a proportional rise in the trade deficit.
Oh, don't look down upon Chinese people. We are not alone - look at Uncle Sam.
(Yes, I'm a bit thick, if not only stubborn.)
The usual suggestion on how our country could get out of the financial tsunami is to boost up the internal demand - so that the living standard of Chinese people could continue to improve, and our economy could be less dependent on export. (Unfortunately, the same suggestion on internal demand is often put up for Hong Kong - without recognizing the difference in the scale of economy. Alas, parrots are everywhere.)
On the first glance, it seems very plausible. Take the States as an example: it could produce almost everything for her people; if the daily need of everyone increases, the whole of her economy would prosper. Although the Chinese land may be less fertile, it seems sufficient to feed 1200-million population. Moreover, a substantial proportion of Chinese people have much in their living standard to be improved. If the original plan of Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) does work out, the affluent people in coastal cities would create demand, and therefore employment opportunities, for the in-land residents - so that the latter could improve their own living.
That sounds great - the only flaw in this link is those rich Chinese people do not impose a higher need of their local products. Be it milk, food, cosmetics, automobile, or any other consumable that you could think of, products from some foreign country are always preferred. They are safe and you would less likely be poisoned by melamine, mercury, Sudan red, or some other funny chemicals that no one knows how to pronounce.
And therefore an increase in internal demand could only be translated to a proportional rise in the trade deficit.
Oh, don't look down upon Chinese people. We are not alone - look at Uncle Sam.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
HSB
While hearing the result announcement of HSBC, an idea suddenly struck my mind: Would they sell HSB ?
For those who are not familiar of the field, I am not talking about selling the first three characters on the logo; I mean the local bank that it acquired some decades ago.
Yes, it sounds unbelievable. (When I told Warren my idea, he took quite a while to be sure I was serious.) Nonetheless, it was equally, if not more, unbelievable twelve months ago to talk about the Citibank being nationalized. Although the gigantic bank would lose a major cash cow by this trading, there are a few conceivable advantages:
On a second thought, wouldn't CIC be a better candidate ?
For those who are not familiar of the field, I am not talking about selling the first three characters on the logo; I mean the local bank that it acquired some decades ago.
Yes, it sounds unbelievable. (When I told Warren my idea, he took quite a while to be sure I was serious.) Nonetheless, it was equally, if not more, unbelievable twelve months ago to talk about the Citibank being nationalized. Although the gigantic bank would lose a major cash cow by this trading, there are a few conceivable advantages:
- It means a HK$50000 million cash - around one third of the amount from the new shares.
- It takes away the duplication of business in Hong Kong.
- It provides some dressing on the profit / loss account in the next year (while continuing to write off a huge sum from the States).
On a second thought, wouldn't CIC be a better candidate ?
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Bank
While talking about HSBC, I would be selfish if I keep to myself two recent emails from my friend.
*******************************
Dear Szeto,
I have glanced through the report of 5 and do some simple calculations on the right issue.
Although the “actuarial” earning of 2008 is much better than reported (YOY down 30% rather than 70%) and the right issue will ultimately be a very bargain one in 5 years time, the projected figures are in fact extremely unfavorable in the coming 2-3 years.
That means, if I accept the right issue of HSBC, the opportunity cost will be very high because I will miss the chance of having at least 30% equity + dividend growth through investing on China Construction Bank in the same period (modest estimate of 1.5 times of GDP= 1.5 x 6.5% in the next 3 years).
So I will decline the offer and put the same amount of money to CCB instead.
Warren
*******************************
(Email to another friend of mine.)
Dear L,
With further meltdown of financial system in US and Europe, those foreign banks will beg you to buy their holdings of CCB at very bargain price in the next several months. There is no need to rush.
I am still confident that HSBC’s economic franchise and monopoly will ultimately be realized with the fall of all other international banks and even insurance companies….. but there is mounting evidence suggesting that the worst of HSBC hasn’t arrived yet and the proposed price of right issue is actually unsafe. I am also quite disappointed with the decline in its corporate governance, which does not match its track record in 20th century.
If it falls further, I am sure the 3 big brothers (CCB, BOC and ICBC) will become the major shareholders of HSBC before British government can take any action (because it will be going bankrupt as well).
How can we Chinese find a better way to revenge the Opium War by acquiring HSBC as a Chinese bank?
Warren
*******************************
I may not absolutely agree with what he says, but there seems much truth in it - and Warren is usually right.
*******************************
Dear Szeto,
I have glanced through the report of 5 and do some simple calculations on the right issue.
Although the “actuarial” earning of 2008 is much better than reported (YOY down 30% rather than 70%) and the right issue will ultimately be a very bargain one in 5 years time, the projected figures are in fact extremely unfavorable in the coming 2-3 years.
That means, if I accept the right issue of HSBC, the opportunity cost will be very high because I will miss the chance of having at least 30% equity + dividend growth through investing on China Construction Bank in the same period (modest estimate of 1.5 times of GDP= 1.5 x 6.5% in the next 3 years).
So I will decline the offer and put the same amount of money to CCB instead.
Warren
*******************************
(Email to another friend of mine.)
Dear L,
With further meltdown of financial system in US and Europe, those foreign banks will beg you to buy their holdings of CCB at very bargain price in the next several months. There is no need to rush.
I am still confident that HSBC’s economic franchise and monopoly will ultimately be realized with the fall of all other international banks and even insurance companies….. but there is mounting evidence suggesting that the worst of HSBC hasn’t arrived yet and the proposed price of right issue is actually unsafe. I am also quite disappointed with the decline in its corporate governance, which does not match its track record in 20th century.
If it falls further, I am sure the 3 big brothers (CCB, BOC and ICBC) will become the major shareholders of HSBC before British government can take any action (because it will be going bankrupt as well).
How can we Chinese find a better way to revenge the Opium War by acquiring HSBC as a Chinese bank?
Warren
*******************************
I may not absolutely agree with what he says, but there seems much truth in it - and Warren is usually right.
Monday, March 9, 2009
HSBC
I sold my small fortune on HSBC the day after its result was announced.
No, it's not because the profit is disappointing (seriously I have not gone through the report in detail); it is not even because shareholders have to chip in more money for its running - but it was because of the simple reason that it would be a 5 for 12 rights issue.
It indicates that Stephen Green and other HSBC administration are drowned by details and lose the touch with reality.
Otherwise the arrangement should be 1 for 2 (or 1 for 4, while changing the lot size from 400 to 500 shares), so that most of the humble investors, like me, could keep up with round number of share. At present, to end up with a round number, you need a minimum of 4800 shares (or its multiple !) - and you will have 2000 new shares after all these torture.
(Jove, I need to work out this number by my TI BA-II Plus calculator. Thank you.)
And therefore I sold it all for their failing in a simple arithmetic test.
No, it's not because the profit is disappointing (seriously I have not gone through the report in detail); it is not even because shareholders have to chip in more money for its running - but it was because of the simple reason that it would be a 5 for 12 rights issue.
It indicates that Stephen Green and other HSBC administration are drowned by details and lose the touch with reality.
Otherwise the arrangement should be 1 for 2 (or 1 for 4, while changing the lot size from 400 to 500 shares), so that most of the humble investors, like me, could keep up with round number of share. At present, to end up with a round number, you need a minimum of 4800 shares (or its multiple !) - and you will have 2000 new shares after all these torture.
(Jove, I need to work out this number by my TI BA-II Plus calculator. Thank you.)
And therefore I sold it all for their failing in a simple arithmetic test.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Musketeers
It is a common misconception that Les Trois Mousquetaires of Alexandre Dumas is a story of three musketeers - as the name implies.
There are, in fact, four: Athos, Porthos, and Aramis are the three that correspond to the title, but it is d'Artagnan - the fourth one - who is the main character. The story is actually about d'Artagnan joining the group and having a series of adventure thereafter. (I read the Chinese translation a few years ago. For even a modern reader like me, the book is not entirely boring.)
In a sense, Dumas was an author exceptionally ahead of his time. You know what, the Mousquetaires, and many of his other books, were mostly not his own writing; he employed a huge group of supporting staff to collect information (alas, those were the days before you could find everything from the internet), prepare the draft, and proof-read. Yes, he did contribute - not too a small part - in the final manuscript, but his major role is to present as a figurehead and create some kind of popularity in order to market the book.
Doesn't that sound a familiar trick ?
Yes, in the software industry, he is known as Bill Gates.
There are, in fact, four: Athos, Porthos, and Aramis are the three that correspond to the title, but it is d'Artagnan - the fourth one - who is the main character. The story is actually about d'Artagnan joining the group and having a series of adventure thereafter. (I read the Chinese translation a few years ago. For even a modern reader like me, the book is not entirely boring.)
In a sense, Dumas was an author exceptionally ahead of his time. You know what, the Mousquetaires, and many of his other books, were mostly not his own writing; he employed a huge group of supporting staff to collect information (alas, those were the days before you could find everything from the internet), prepare the draft, and proof-read. Yes, he did contribute - not too a small part - in the final manuscript, but his major role is to present as a figurehead and create some kind of popularity in order to market the book.
Doesn't that sound a familiar trick ?
Yes, in the software industry, he is known as Bill Gates.
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