Burden

Following on my malicious suggestion yesterday, why shouldn’t we propose a healthy diet so that everyone could live longer and healthier?

Alas, it is a romantic idea that the burden on the health care system (and other social resources) depends on how healthy the population is.

That’s utterly wrong. The major determinant is the average life span of the population.

The explanation is simple. First, everyone would succumb, sooner or later, to one fatal disease. (Otherwise we should still be able to meet Ying Zheng [嬴政] or Mr. Mao today !) The cost to the health care system is, therefore, constant.

You may say if everyone becomes more healthy, the cost of treating chronic medical diseases would decrease.

That idea is more than romantic – it is naïve. Since the actual number of elderly population increases with the life span, there would be no change in the count of diabetic or hypertensive patients.

As Hercule Poirot said in Murder on the Links, if you do not see this point, you could not see anything. Well, maybe I could explain the logic some time later, but, at this moment, please accept it as a mathematical certainty.

PS. I suppose it’s self evident that the cost to other social resource hinges on the number of old people.