Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Advance

You may ask, "Aren't there real advances in medical treatment ?"

Yes, of course. The very fact is, however, the magnitude of improvement (or, as some extra-terrestrials who are obsessive in evidence-based medicine loved to say, the absolute risk reduction) is declining. (Well, there aren't very many common conditions that has 50% mortality in short term - except perhaps the victim of homicide secondary to psychiatric manifestation of acute hypoglycemia during a lunchtime meeting sine lunch with organisms in Pluto; I just had one earlier today.)

What's the result ? Since we need large trials to prove a small benefit, clinical studies are more and more influenced by pharmaceutical (i.e. business !) companies. As you can predict, the more the participant, the more the mishappenings - which means more controls and bureaucratic formalities.

That's the short term effect. In the long run, the cost to prove a product being superior would increase exponentially - eventually outweight any monetary return from the successful product. (Note also that with more control and bureaucracy, the chance of having a successful product - in terms of getting it on to the market - is ever decreasing.)

Would there be a point when no new drug would be developed because it is just too expensive to prove effective ?

PS. For those not familiar with Latin, "sine" means "without".

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