Different

One important discrepancy in opinion between my friend TW and me is our view on the problem of the local medical circle.

Frequent visitors of this site would know I tend to believe the root of our problem is the shortage of manpower. In contrast, TW concludes, rather succinctly, that it is the stagnancy of senior physicians in the public hospital that causes the roar.

I must say she is correct.

In essence, I see only the short term phenomenon, and my friend has a grip on the root of the matter.

Let me give you the proof in a mathematical way:

• In general, a medical graduate starts physician training at the age of 25.
• If he does not leave the system for the private market, he should retire at 60-year-old.
• In other words, the life-expectancy of his career is 35 years.
• If we accept a one-to-one ratio for senior and junior doctor, we would expect he could be promoted to the senior position after graduated for 17.5 years (or, assuming a training of 7 years, he would be promoted around 10 years after getting his fellowship).

That's exactly what's going on.