Depression

Once I think of the Japanese bubble, the story of the Great Depression comes next to my mind.

(I am certainly too impressed by Benjamin Graham's Security Analysis.)

There are many hypothesis on the cause of this tragedy in economy, but a substantial part of the event bears much similarity with the Japanese bubble: easily available loans, over-investment, decline in sales, lack of loan, reduction in investment, followed by the downward spiral of everything. The most important bit is: both took over 10 years to recover.

Yes, it was fortunate for the American economy to have the Second World War - it brought down the unemployment and gave confidence to industrial investment. That's why Uncle Sam could get out of the Great Depression after 10 years of struggle.

And he knew it just too well - so much so he is all prepared to have (start ?) another war to hasten the recovery of any economy downturn.

Well, does China know this trick ?

In a time of worldwide difficulty, would it be convenient for the super-powers to ignite fire on some corner of the earth ?