Nihilism

You may think my recent discussion is nothing but grumble from a (not very successful) investor.

But no. The same problem appears in many other aspects of our life.

Say, for example, we often consider randomized control trial as the gold standard of assessing the benefit of a drug (or other forms of treatment). Yes, we can prove a drug being useful or not. But, we can never prove that the placebo group (that is, doing nothing, or sticking to the available treatment at hand) represents the optimal therapy - there is always something possible to make things even better. Just that we don't know what.

Isn't that the principal reason people do medical research?

For that reason, it really needs wisdom for a researcher to conclude major advance is unlikely in a particular field of study and effort could be better spent in another area.

I don't think I should say any more.

PS. In fact, it is difficult enough for a patient to feel content with the natural course of illness or the limited options of available treatment - or, in other words, be satisfied while knowing that he is in the placebo group.