Friday, May 25, 2012

0.36


The very implication of the fact that we do not live in a one (or two) dimension world may skip your eyes.

To put it simply, if each of us have different preferences on various aspects of a topic, a person with a balanced opinion of all individuals on all aspects of the problem (that is, the center of gravity of the system) does not always have at least 50% of the vote when running against someone with an obviously biased opinion. In fact, that person with a balanced mind could only guarantee himself to be supported by at least approximately 36% of the people. (The exact percentage is actually 1/e, where e equals 2.71828.)

In other words, a simple majority is usually biased; a well-balanced opinion is very often objected in various aspects by the majority of people.

Or, as Bill Cosby said: I don't know the key to success, but the key to failure is o try to please everyone.

PS. In the above elaboration, I have done away with all difficult mathematical models and the hypothetical construction of a multi-dimension universe. Interested visitors should refer to Andrew Caplin and Barry Nalebuff’s On 64%-majority rule and Aggregation and social choice: a mean voter theorem, both published in Econometrica.

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