Draw

You may ask what could I make out of the list.

Alas, it really depends on your point of view.

You may ask, like Hercule Poirot, "We saw the same thing, shouldn't we make the same conclusion?"

Then, let's go through the facts:

• 6 of the 18 issues on the list did horribly (#55, 274, 643, 1071, 1163, and 8056)
• 6 prospered well (#87, 177, 345, 347, 984, 1052)
• the remaining 6 just followed the market trend (#125, 682, 711, 900, 991, 1038)

Just looking at the numbers, you may say that's a draw.

However, only one of the issues had its value fell to zero (#8056); all other 5 that decreased in price had some residual value (average 37%). In contrast, the 6 whose price rose dramatically made an average of 6-fold return - far much more to compensate for the loss. In fact, if you made a portfolio with equal weight of the 18 items in 2001, the value increased by 2.7 fold after 10 years, or a 70% extra return as compared to putting your money on Hong Kong Tracker Fund.