The idea is simple, and is very well tested in animal behavioral studies. Imagine, if a group of mice or fish is directed to the bifurcation of a road, on the end of one there lies some danger (for example, a predator), which could only be detected by some excellent capability (say, a good eyesight). What characteristic would maximize the chance that all of the mice, or the most of them, survive?
No, not when most of the fish or mice had an excellent vision. The most efficient scenario is when a few leaders have the vision and the others could quickly follow. (In fact, the group would not be as efficient even if they all have a good vision, because they are crowded together and everyone needs to move to the front and take a look.)
Things seem illuminating, eh?
The sobering truth is, in real life situation, there's often no deadly predator lying ahead of our choice, and many decisions have no objective answer right or wrong. In that situation, when most people follow the leader, their choice becomes the correct opinion. As George Soros put it, truth depends sometimes on our subjective opinion, some statements could be true because most people believe it is so and act accordingly - it is a self fulfilling prophecy. The classic examples are fashion and the stock market.
But, in that case, what special capability would make a leader?
None, except they are arrogant enough to come out and show the followers the way.
Go read http://vwswong.blogspot.com/2011/09/confidence.html
By the way, the above discussion also explains why, although being confident and becoming the leader is advantageous, there remains a whole lot of sheepish people around after millions of years of evolution.
No comments:
Post a Comment