Expand

On a casual glance, it seems obvious that nothing could expand forever, and putting money on a company that had already enjoyed excellent growth in the past five or ten years is nothing more or less than absurd.

(One easy example at hand is, if Facebook expands by 50% each year, everyone on earth would be a citizen of King Zuckerberg five years later – and, what next?)

But, as pointed out by Arthur Schopenhauer, all truth passes through three stages: first, it is ridiculed; second, it is violently opposed; third, it is accepted as being self-evident. Many of us are still taken in by the rosy future of growth stocks – or, even worse, mutual funds – by their past performance. The dream only comes to an end when the bubble bursts.

(Another simple example: If the profit and asset of Apple continues to grow by 40% each year, it will conquer all wealth on earth before 2046. And, once again, what next? Explore new markets on Mars?)

Everything sounds very simple, eh?

What about our medical knowledge?

PS. If your response is This time the scenario is different, there is no need to discuss the problem any further – everyone I know who buy pseudo-growth stocks gives the same answer.