Saturday, November 12, 2011

Discount

You may think I am short-sighted and do not appreciate the long term benefit of supporting democracy. Well, let's analyze the problem from a business point of view:

First, please accept all long term gain could be converted for immediate cost-benefit analysis by the discounted cash flow (折讓現金流) method. The principle is simple. For example, in 1990, if Alan Greenspan promised to give you $100 ten years later. Given his creditability, we take 4% as the annual discount rate. It would imply the effect would be the same if our previous Chairman of the Federal Reserve gave you $67.6 in 1990 that and there. (Try it with your own calculator.)

But, if Ben Bernanke made the same promise to you in 2010, the financial environment (and, I am forced to say, the person) changed. The future is more risky, and the discount rate needs to be higher - let's say, 8%. In that case, you may prefer cashing away $46.3 from the chairman now, rather than having to wait until 2020.

The idea is, therefore, simple: The more uncertain and risky the future, the higher the discount rate, and, as a result, the lower the present value one would take as being equivalent. And, as pointed out by Albert Einstein, compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. If we have to wait long for a huge wealth, we may as well get a tiny sum immediately. (For example, for 30 years and a discount rate of 12%, $100 becomes $3.3 only.)

Therefore, don't blame people who vote for the candidate that brings them to dinner; they have very little idea when democracy would bear fruit, and, since pursuing such an exceptional virtue has a very high risk, the discount rate should be huge.

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