Expectancy

You may disagree with my attempt to understand the phenomenon of bribery in election; I myself is slightly suspicious. To say the least, the traditional discounted cash flow method does not take into the account of the interaction between time and life expectancy.

It goes like this:

Let's suppose voting for Party D would generate a benefit of $100 twenty years later. Assuming a discount rate of 8% (the standard rate of return for a business with an average risk, as suggested by Benjamin Graham), the present value is $21.5. In other words, a calculated voter could be bribed by paying him $22.

But, in reality, you can do away with paying that much for many of the people in the community.

Why? If the expected life span of this country is 80 years, the future value of voting for Party D would be zero for anyone above the age of 60. In layman's term, they would not live that long to see the benefit - and, therefore, they could be bribed by an amazingly small sum.

Say, $1.

What's the conclusion? Alas, it means that bribery in election is a highly profitable business!

PS. In real life, many senior citizens do vote for the benefit of their children and grandchildren, and one could always join the dinner (or take whatever benefit that is offered) and vote for the other side. If you could think of all these, you would hardly be fooled by any politician. Unfortunately, most people are honest and do keep their promise.