Outbreak

You may think my suggestion that prevention of virus spread may lead to catastrophic infection outbreak unbelievable.

Rather than showing you some analogous happenings in history or politics, let me tell you a story on the prevention of forest fire.

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When the US Forest Service was established in 1905, complete fire suppression was the objective. Before that policy, Giant Sequoia and a few other fire resistant species predominated in the forest of California because fire (periodic ones by lightening, for example) is an essential part of their life cycle - by destroying those shorter and more easily burnt competitors. The aim of complete fire suppression, however, led to an increase in the number of trees such as Ponderosa Pine and Douglas Fir - in short, highly flammable species - in the forests.

What's the result ? The strategy enjoyed some initial years with minimal fire (and the policy makers conceivably proved to the public that they worth their salt). In reality the number of ordinary small fire was reduced, but the few major catastrophic ones remained inevitable. More so, because the composition of forests had changed, these fires were much worse - they became uncontrollable disasters.

(Of course the policy also has a profound effect on the ecology of wildlife, but it is not the subject of our discussion today.)

Go read Collapse of Jared Diamond.