Claim

That evening I met L again, and I told him my luncheon discussion. To my surprise, he looked horrified.

"Do you mean you think the government should propose a medical insurance to cover clinic visits and treatment of chronic diseases?" He gasped.

"Yes," I thought my idea was rather natural, and could not see why my friend was so excited, "What's wrong ?"

"It's all wrong," L smiled - rather wicked a one I thought - and he asked, "What is the claim rate for medical insurance of this kind?"

"It's around 40% according to our morning paper," I replied.

"That's the figure if you have a group of people start purchasing a medical insurance now and you review the claim a year later. But, let's say you follow the government proposal and everyone could renew the insurance irrespective to the age, how many of them would need to claim?"

"You mean...?" I began to see his point.

"I mean, except for that very few unfortunate - or really fortunate - ones who suddenly drop dead, close to 100% of the people would develop some chronic medical diseases or need a surgery before they decide to meet St. Peter - or our chairman Mao if you like."